Articles and Press releases
Global weekly: Too far, too fast 21 August 2015
This week, the low oil and commodity prices pushed down bond, equity and Asian currency markets. Group Economics believes the commodity correction has gone too far, too fast, but expects the oil price to remain low for longer.
‘ABN AMRO continued to perform well in Q2 of 2015 following a good start in Q1. With net profit coming to EUR 600 million, Q2 was the most profitable quarter since the new bank was created in 2010.'
Global weekly: In or out? 10 July 2015
The crisis in Greece and a severe correction in China weighed on equity markets this week. Credit spreads for peripheral eurozone government bonds increased, but later declined, as Greece's problems remain contained.
The result of the Greek referendum on Sunday is crucial. A Yes vote would revive talks between Greece and its creditors, while a No vote would further increase the chances of an eventual exit by Greece from the euro.
Market alert: Greek drama, but no exit 29 June 2015
The developments related to Greece’s debt refinancing that occurred over the weekend are dramatic. They include the announcement of a referendum, a bank holiday for Greek banks and the ECB’s resolve to continue to provide support. Despite the high intensity, these events fall within the base-case scenario adopted by the Global Investment Committee. Plan B, an exit by Greece from the eurozone, still appears avoidable.
Global weekly: Greek drama: the final act? 26 June 2015
Not surprisingly, sentiment in equity and bond markets this week was driven by developments surrounding Greece. In what seems to be a never-ending story, Greece and its creditors failed to reach an agreement on debt resolution in the past couple of days. Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to reconvene on Saturday for a meeting that has “decisive significance,” as German Chancellor Angela Merkel put it on Friday morning.
ABN AMRO is today issuing an update on the current investigation into previously ascertained irregularities at its Private Banking office in Dubai.
With an end-of-the-month deadline looming for Greece’s refinancing, markets were uncertain this week. In the US, the Federal Reserve looks to be on track for rate hikes beginning in September.
Investment strategy June 2015 15 June 2015
The Global Investment Committee (GIC), at its meeting on 10 June, confirmed the existing asset allocation consisting of an overweight in equities and a strong underweight in bonds. In recognition of increasing market volatility, the decision was made to further increase the diversification of the asset allocation, where applicable. Real estate, which historically moves in line with equities, was sold. The proceeds, together with a portion of cash, were invested in commodities and hedge funds.
Global weekly: Greece in firing line 12 June 2015
Sentiment is currently hurt by fears of a Greek exit, rising bond yields and increasing volatility in foreign exchange markets. These developments should, however, not challenge the economic recovery scenario or earnings fundamentals.